19 June 2011
KABUL, AFGHANISTAN
It's time to make big decisions. These decisions will have a huge impact on the future of Afghanistan. The biggest question at hand: How many troops will we keep here and for how long?
The answer to that question must not be dreamed up in political strategy sessions or in focus groups. Buzzwords and abstractions won't do.
This is about real people — our soldiers, airmen, sailors and Marines, our allies — and the people of Afghanistan. It's their lives that hang in the balance, and our judgment must respect the challenge they face and the progress they have made.
Let's begin with a few facts. For the strategy we used, we never had enough troops in Afghanistan to defeat our enemies and stand up a civil society. It can be argued that today, we still do not have enough.
Despite this, the coalition and the Afghans appear to finally be turning the tide in our favor, and a great deal of this can be credited to President Obama for deciding to send more troops. Unfortunately, the President has stated that we will begin bringing troops home this year.
This puts him in a bind. To keep his word, the President may have to undermine the very success that he facilitated.
And especially since the killing of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan, others can be expected to ratchet up the political pressure on Obama should he not begin the drawdown on schedule. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican frontrunner for the 2012 election, said this last week: "It's time for us to bring our troops home as soon as we possibly can, consistent with the word that comes to our generals that we can hand the country over… we've learned some important lessons in our experience in Afghanistan. I want those troops to come home based upon not politics, not based upon economics, but instead based upon the conditions on the ground determined by the generals. But I also think we've learned that our troops shouldn't go off and try and fight a war of independence for another nation. Only the Afghanis can win Afghanistan's independence from the Taliban."
Gen. David Petraeus is the boss here in Afghanistan. He has been tasked with making a recommendation on troop withdrawal. He arrived in Washington last week, where he is recommending a timetable for the drawdown of the 30,000 “surge” troops sent to the country in 2009.
Obama had promised that those troops would start coming home in July, but conditions on the ground always matter more.
On June 5, I asked Petraeus in his Kabul office for insight into his recommendation to the President. He told me he has not yet told anyone what his recommendation will be.
Many people are waiting. Not even his staff knows.
Petraeus, tapped to take over the CIA upon his retirement from this post, has accumulated a long string of unlikely successes in Iraq, and increasingly in Afghanistan. These efforts have been far more than mere war. Our people triumphed in the kinetic fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan years ago; the far greater difficulties have been the second wars fought in both countries during the long nation-building phases.
Any politician who says we are not nation building in Iraq or Afghanistan should be dismissed. Nation building is the course we chose, and nation building is what is occurring. Slowly.
In Iraq, a government was shattered and rebuilt. In Afghanistan, there was no government to shatter. Afghanistan was just an area where a lot of people lived, and today it's being built up from mud and sticks. For instance, there was not a single meter of paved road in Ghor Province.
A country is being built from scratch and nobody has more experience at the messy and difficult job of “shatter and create” than does Petraeus. He knows his business, his profession and his art, and he knows more about the current war than anyone alive. His recommendation will carry significant weight.
But while we do this critical work, our young warriors are still dying and being wounded in large numbers. People at home are asking if Afghanistan is worth the sacrifice. And then there is the economy, still struggling and endangering our country strategically. The war here is very expensive.
Is it worth it? This is a hard question. We made the judgment that this war was worth fighting when we put our warriors into the arena in the first place. We've already jumped and now we are deciding whether to land on our heads, our rears or our feet. We cannot unjump. Our people are fighting as you read this. When we ordered our military to go, we cloaked ourselves in great responsibility to support them and to achieve success.
Our troops have two responsibilities, which are tightly interwoven: Win the war and create Afghanistan. It is not the troops' place to consider the global economy. They are not to consider unfolding debacle in Libya, the long challenges in Iraq or the dark side of the moon.
And so when Petraeus makes his recommendation to the President, his recommendation should not include any consideration of the U.S. economy, the debt or jobs in America. He is the man in the arena. The man in the arena does not collect parking tickets, or work at the concession stand or concern himself with the electric bill for the stadium. He beats his opponent to the ground. Or, in this case, beats some opponents into the ground and builds a country simultaneously. His recommendation to the President should be pure, devoid of outside considerations.
We must be honest about what we can accomplish. This is a century-long process. A little Afghan girl is watching me write this opinion. She appears to be about 4 years old, and she keeps peeking around the door smiling at me while her mother is cleaning the house and her father takes care of the property. The girl follows me around the house. A storm is coming and a lightning bolt just zapped the electricity. I am unarmed but safe in Kabul, and if this little girl is lucky, and we do not abandon Afghanistan, she may one day end up in a university.
Petraeus told me that at its peak, violence in Iraq was four times higher than current violence is here. This seems about right. I can drive around Afghanistan in many places. I've been back in Kabul for almost two weeks and have not heard a single gunshot or explosion, though I did feel an earthquake.
This isn't Baghdad. During peak times in Iraq, you couldn't go 30 minutes in Baghdad without seeing or hearing something. The most dangerous city in Afghanistan is Kandahar, yet I have driven around Kandahar many times, including recently, without a shred of armor. I could never have survived this in Fallujah, Basra, Baghdad, Baquba or Mosul. I have driven this year, without troops, to places in Afghanistan where last year I would have almost certainly been killed, such as Panjwai. You don't need thick intelligence reports to translate those realities.
Shouting at an oak tree will no not make it grow faster, and ignoring a sapling in this desert will leave it to die. An acorn was planted in 2001, and we mostly ignored it for more than half a decade while our people fought so hard in Iraq. Today, that acorn is a scrawny, 10-year-old oak tree that was so neglected until 2010 that it nearly died. Its skinny branches are still so weak that a sparrow dare not land, and while we focused on Iraq, the enemies here stayed busy nibbling away at anything green. Yet over the past year of extra care, there are clear signs of life and new growth.
Meanwhile, our enemies here are being monkey stomped. The rule of monkey stomping has never changed. Don't stop stomping until the enemy stops breathing. This enemy has earned respect for its courage, resilience and will-not-quit spirit, but there is only so much it can take.
At this rate, the Graveyard of Empires, the Undefeatables, will need a new advertising campaign. Our enemies here are turning out to be the Almost Undefeatables. The many good Afghans want to move forward. They want their kids, boys and girls, to see better days.
The bottom line is that there are unmistakable signs of progress in Afghanistan, and Gen. David Petraeus is about to make a very important recommendation.
His judgment should be trusted.
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Comments
May the spirit of God (for the true meaning outside and above religiion) grant the Taliban "eyes to see" !
You have eyes & boots on the ground. I trust your insight implicitly. The strategic peril, economically, to the USA has never been higher. I have very close friends in country. I have lost friends there. We are faced with a Hobon's choice.
it s too early to say that. I AM french....
xb
You can beat the Taliban on the ground (at least temporarily), and you can reverse the trend of other foreign powers becoming mired in failure there...in the short term. But ultimately, when we leave---and we will leave---in the absence of a non-corrupt central government, Afghanistan will likely revert to fractionated, fundamentalist tribalism.
Let's ask Mike why, as a war correspondent, he's not following Galloway's example at Ia Drang, why isn't he in the field, reporting the war with the 'hard earned' money he gets from hitting the PayPal button? Interviewing Generals in a well armed environment isn't something I'd like to pay for, since those Generals are free, obviously, to write or speak for themselves. (comment is too long?)
Do not underestimate the tenacity of the enemy. If we leave now, they'll pour back into Afghanistan just like they're pouring into Iraq, Yemen, north Africa, anywhere there's no real government left. We will be defeated.
In my view we must abandon Afghanistan.
There are other cultural and societal factors at play that are even greater threats to the US in the long term. Unfortunately those are political and General Petraeus and US military leadership in general, have to stomach for crossing civilian leadership so they are largely irrelevant to the larger contest that is playing out
I believe that "nation building" was a priority since day one of OIF as there was sentiment that a stable Iraq could serve as a model for change within the greater Arab world. However, I think the primary mission of OEF has been the disruption of our enemies' ability to project violence within the US and that any practical government left for the Afghanis was an added benefit of our involvement in their country.
I wrote to exactly this issue in my latest blog: http://bit.ly/kHj9Ld
Thank you for your dedicated work.
I have a brother in Baghdad as a contractor, he has been there for years, he said it is bad and getting worse. He gave me a website to read that has the REAL news coming from Iraq, very different than we get in the MSM!
Calls for immediate pullback ignore the ramifications of the same actions we took in this exact same nation with the exact same people once the soviets left. Yes, lets go ahead and leave at once. Lets allow salafists to turn this place into a religious theocracy. Lets doom the women of this country to lack of rights, education, and health. Lets allow an already dreadful illiteracy rate of 70% climb even higher with the resulting destruction of schools. Lets allow what schools do remain standing teach anti-american ideals and a disgustingly radicalized version of Islam. Lets ensure Afghanistan remains the worst place on earth... And you would be able to point the blame for all of it right at us.
While I no doubt share your desire to keep all of those terrible outcomes as you describe from occurring in Afghanistan, I am not sure we share the same measurement of cost that we are willing to bear to see it through.
In a perfect world, someone in the know would present the percentage chance that we can at ANY point exit Afghanistan without the atrocities occurring as you describe. If that authority isn’t at least 90% convinced, then I say not one more dollar should be spent and certainly not one more American life lost in this uncertain pursuit.
IMO, if we leave now, we are still leaving having accomplished our mission.
Is it possible for Afghanistan to have a functional existence? I believe it is..after the Civil War, the Afghani's did drive the Taliban out of their country with our help. They were trying to bring a quality of life to their citizens but the Taliban came back and assassinated Massoud.
Had we gone in balls to walls and neutered the Taliban, we would be years into helping to support their Police and Army.
Yes, we did accomplish our original mission. At this point it is in fact what you want to see come of all the hard work invested.
What is the focus in Greece.
The majoroty of the people are suffering here in the US as well and nobody seems to care in government. If fact they make it worse.
DAvid
US Army Retired
Sadly politics is more important than freedom
God Bless
Prayers for Afghanistan.
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